Deadline (Closes in 18 days)
64%
Updated 4d ago
N/A
Not yet available
76%
Set at open
1,587
1,265 forecasters
Resolves YES if
YES if the average of openai.com's daily Tranco ranks for 2026-11-02 through 2026-11-08 (UTC) is 100 or better (lower). Tranco ranks sites by combined traffic signals; it is a proxy for site usage, not a user count.
Resolves NO if
NO if that 7-day average Tranco rank is worse (higher) than 100, or if openai.com is unranked on any of those days.
Expected resolution by
64%
▼ 10 pts since open
| Recorded | Market probability | Forecasters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026, 11:44 PM UTC | 64% | 1265 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC | 58% | 1242 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC | 63% | 1219 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 3:06 PM UTC | 65% | 1196 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 12:01 PM UTC | 62% | 1173 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 9:47 AM UTC | 60% | 1150 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC | 62% | 1150 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC | 64% | 1150 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 1:03 AM UTC | 66% | 1127 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 10:24 PM UTC | 60% | 1104 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 7:35 PM UTC | 66% | 1081 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 4:44 PM UTC | 64% | 1058 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 2:05 PM UTC | 62% | 1058 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 10:41 AM UTC | 60% | 1035 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 8:10 AM UTC | 59% | 1012 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 5:55 AM UTC | 63% | 989 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 2:52 AM UTC | 63% | 989 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 11:22 PM UTC | 63% | 966 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC | 68% | 966 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 6:29 PM UTC | 68% | 966 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 3:28 PM UTC | 69% | 943 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 12:35 PM UTC | 70% | 920 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 9:43 AM UTC | 70% | 897 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC | 64% | 874 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 4:14 AM UTC | 62% | 851 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 1:19 AM UTC | 61% | 828 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC | 58% | 828 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC | 65% | 828 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 5:44 PM UTC | 63% | 805 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 2:39 PM UTC | 66% | 782 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 11:34 AM UTC | 61% | 759 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 8:26 AM UTC | 63% | 759 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC | 61% | 736 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 3:45 AM UTC | 66% | 713 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC | 71% | 690 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 10:01 PM UTC | 70% | 667 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 6:46 PM UTC | 74% | 644 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 3:41 PM UTC | 68% | 621 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 1:29 PM UTC | 65% | 598 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 10:55 AM UTC | 65% | 598 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 7:27 AM UTC | 72% | 575 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC | 69% | 575 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 1:54 AM UTC | 70% | 575 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC | 71% | 575 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 11:24 PM UTC | 71% | 575 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC | 74% | 552 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC | 78% | 529 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC | 79% | 506 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 11:42 AM UTC | 77% | 483 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC | 76% | 460 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC | 75% | 437 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 3:28 AM UTC | 77% | 437 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 1:32 AM UTC | 69% | 414 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 10:35 PM UTC | 67% | 391 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC | 67% | 368 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 4:47 PM UTC | 66% | 345 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 1:53 PM UTC | 74% | 322 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC | 75% | 299 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 8:30 AM UTC | 78% | 276 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 5:36 AM UTC | 70% | 253 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 2:42 AM UTC | 68% | 230 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 11:54 PM UTC | 74% | 207 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC | 75% | 184 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC | 73% | 161 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 3:47 PM UTC | 76% | 138 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 12:31 PM UTC | 73% | 115 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC | 82% | 92 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 7:46 AM UTC | 76% | 69 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC | 74% | 46 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 1:09 AM UTC | 74% | 23 |
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