Deadline (Closes in 18 days)
65%
Updated 4d ago
N/A
Not yet available
68%
Set at open
1,380
1,140 forecasters
Resolves YES if
YES if the average of mistral.ai's daily Tranco ranks for 2026-11-02 through 2026-11-08 (UTC) is 6,600 or better (lower). Tranco ranks sites by combined traffic signals; it is a proxy for site usage, not a user count.
Resolves NO if
NO if that 7-day average Tranco rank is worse (higher) than 6,600, or if mistral.ai is unranked on any of those days.
Expected resolution by
65%
▼ 10 pts since open
| Recorded | Market probability | Forecasters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026, 11:27 PM UTC | 65% | 1140 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 8:12 PM UTC | 61% | 1120 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 6:16 PM UTC | 62% | 1120 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 2:54 PM UTC | 63% | 1100 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 12:24 PM UTC | 67% | 1080 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 9:09 AM UTC | 70% | 1060 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 6:42 AM UTC | 65% | 1040 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC | 71% | 1020 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 12:54 AM UTC | 68% | 1000 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC | 66% | 980 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC | 69% | 980 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 5:09 PM UTC | 74% | 980 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 1:23 PM UTC | 66% | 980 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC | 63% | 960 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 7:43 AM UTC | 69% | 940 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC | 72% | 920 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 2:49 AM UTC | 68% | 900 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 11:46 PM UTC | 70% | 880 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 8:46 PM UTC | 62% | 860 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 6:22 PM UTC | 72% | 840 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 3:51 PM UTC | 65% | 820 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 12:43 PM UTC | 65% | 800 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 10:04 AM UTC | 67% | 780 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 6:51 AM UTC | 66% | 760 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC | 67% | 740 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 1:42 AM UTC | 57% | 740 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC | 63% | 720 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC | 65% | 700 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC | 70% | 680 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC | 68% | 660 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 11:33 AM UTC | 70% | 640 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 8:25 AM UTC | 65% | 640 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 6:03 AM UTC | 70% | 620 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC | 66% | 620 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 12:58 AM UTC | 70% | 600 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 9:37 PM UTC | 68% | 580 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 6:44 PM UTC | 62% | 560 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 4:33 PM UTC | 60% | 540 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 1:23 PM UTC | 69% | 520 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 10:04 AM UTC | 68% | 500 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 7:46 AM UTC | 66% | 480 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC | 67% | 460 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 2:02 AM UTC | 60% | 440 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC | 68% | 420 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 11:39 PM UTC | 68% | 420 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 8:41 PM UTC | 70% | 400 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC | 68% | 400 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 3:32 PM UTC | 72% | 400 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 12:22 PM UTC | 71% | 380 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 9:56 AM UTC | 70% | 360 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 6:23 AM UTC | 69% | 360 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 3:41 AM UTC | 71% | 340 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 1:11 AM UTC | 67% | 320 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC | 67% | 300 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 7:59 PM UTC | 67% | 280 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC | 72% | 260 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC | 64% | 240 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC | 70% | 220 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 7:58 AM UTC | 70% | 200 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 5:49 AM UTC | 67% | 180 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 2:42 AM UTC | 67% | 160 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC | 66% | 160 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 9:43 PM UTC | 69% | 140 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC | 71% | 120 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 4:03 PM UTC | 68% | 100 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 12:55 PM UTC | 67% | 100 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 9:42 AM UTC | 73% | 80 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 6:48 AM UTC | 74% | 60 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 4:56 AM UTC | 72% | 40 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 1:53 AM UTC | 76% | 20 |
Open and efficient AI models