Deadline (Closes in 18 days)
43%
Updated 4d ago
N/A
Not yet available
46%
Set at open
1,496
1,100 forecasters
Resolves YES if
YES if the average of convex.dev's daily Tranco ranks for 2026-11-02 through 2026-11-08 (UTC) is 71,000 or better (lower). Tranco ranks sites by combined traffic signals; it is a proxy for site usage, not a user count.
Resolves NO if
NO if that 7-day average Tranco rank is worse (higher) than 71,000, or if convex.dev is unranked on any of those days.
Expected resolution by
43%
▼ 4 pts since open
| Recorded | Market probability | Forecasters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC | 43% | 1100 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC | 43% | 1100 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 5:18 PM UTC | 37% | 1100 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 2:47 PM UTC | 42% | 1100 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 12:06 PM UTC | 41% | 1078 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC | 45% | 1078 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC | 40% | 1078 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC | 36% | 1078 |
| Oct 10, 2026, 12:47 AM UTC | 44% | 1056 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 9:42 PM UTC | 46% | 1034 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC | 42% | 1034 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 3:41 PM UTC | 39% | 1034 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 1:39 PM UTC | 41% | 1012 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 10:34 AM UTC | 41% | 1012 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 7:12 AM UTC | 49% | 990 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 4:57 AM UTC | 40% | 990 |
| Oct 9, 2026, 1:43 AM UTC | 41% | 968 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 11:35 PM UTC | 43% | 946 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 7:52 PM UTC | 40% | 946 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 5:09 PM UTC | 42% | 924 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 2:21 PM UTC | 47% | 902 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 12:19 PM UTC | 39% | 902 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 8:29 AM UTC | 42% | 880 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 5:39 AM UTC | 40% | 858 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 3:55 AM UTC | 42% | 858 |
| Oct 8, 2026, 12:36 AM UTC | 38% | 858 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC | 45% | 836 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 6:20 PM UTC | 42% | 836 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 4:12 PM UTC | 42% | 814 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 1:14 PM UTC | 40% | 792 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 10:12 AM UTC | 45% | 770 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC | 47% | 748 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC | 43% | 748 |
| Oct 7, 2026, 2:13 AM UTC | 37% | 726 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 11:36 PM UTC | 41% | 704 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 7:57 PM UTC | 39% | 682 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC | 49% | 660 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 2:17 PM UTC | 44% | 638 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 12:06 PM UTC | 50% | 616 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 8:33 AM UTC | 56% | 594 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC | 50% | 594 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 3:33 AM UTC | 56% | 572 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 12:16 AM UTC | 54% | 550 |
| Oct 6, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC | 52% | 550 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 9:53 PM UTC | 52% | 550 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 6:35 PM UTC | 50% | 528 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC | 48% | 506 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 12:51 PM UTC | 42% | 484 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 10:42 AM UTC | 44% | 462 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC | 45% | 440 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 4:34 AM UTC | 49% | 418 |
| Oct 5, 2026, 1:34 AM UTC | 47% | 396 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 10:25 PM UTC | 48% | 374 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 8:26 PM UTC | 50% | 352 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC | 49% | 330 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 2:57 PM UTC | 48% | 308 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC | 51% | 286 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 8:27 AM UTC | 54% | 264 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 5:25 AM UTC | 53% | 242 |
| Oct 4, 2026, 2:36 AM UTC | 54% | 220 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 11:57 PM UTC | 52% | 198 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC | 46% | 176 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 6:44 PM UTC | 48% | 154 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 3:21 PM UTC | 45% | 132 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC | 44% | 110 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 9:41 AM UTC | 44% | 88 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 6:49 AM UTC | 54% | 66 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 4:05 AM UTC | 46% | 44 |
| Oct 3, 2026, 1:29 AM UTC | 47% | 22 |
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